CBAM Cost Forecast
The CBAM Cost Forecast projects your CBAM cost exposure from 2026 through 2034, across the regulatory free-allocation phase-in and a range of certificate price scenarios. Use it to budget for the definitive period, in which free allocation is phased out year by year. The card is on by default for CBAM clients and is visible to the Client Admin and Client Auditor roles.
The baseline
The forecast starts from the period you have selected in the filter bar. The card states the baseline directly above the chart, for example:
2026 baseline: 9,790,287.22 t import volume, based on your selected period Apr – Jun 2026. Change the date range above to adjust the starting point.
So you can always see which period the projection is built on, and you change the starting point by changing the time filter rather than anything on the card. The period is shown as a month range, so a selected quarter appears as, for example, Apr – Jun 2026. The info icon next to the baseline explains how it is derived.
Behind the line, the baseline uses the CBAM-relevant import volume and embedded emissions of that period as the 2026 starting point, without annualisation. It honours the free allocation your suppliers have reported (Specific Embedded Free Allocation) and follows the Emission Data filter, so a forecast in Default mode and one in Actual & Default mode line up with the CBAM Costs and CBAM Readiness figures on the same page.
The scenarios
Four curves are plotted from 2026 to 2034 with one point per year, each applying the regulatory free-allocation phase-in factors year by year. The legend below the chart names each scenario together with the assumptions behind it:
- Conservative: EUA flat €70, no scope expansion.
- Central: EUA €75→€140, scope expansion 2028.
- Aggressive: EUA €80→€200, scope expansion, full markups.
- Custom: your own scenario, drawn as a dashed line, with your current settings summarised in the legend (for example "Start €75.28, +5%/yr").
The vertical axis is your cost exposure in euros, the horizontal axis is the forecast year.
Annual import volume growth
The Annual import volume growth switch at the top right of the card sets how your import volume develops across the forecast:
- Flat keeps the baseline volume constant for every year to 2034.
- Growth %/yr grows the volume by a percentage each year.
This assumption applies to the forecast as a whole, not only to the Custom scenario.
Custom scenario controls
The controls in the Custom scenario row change only the Custom curve:
- Start €: the certificate price assumed for the first forecast year. It is prefilled with the current CBAM certificate price and you can overwrite it.
- Annual price increase +: the percentage by which the price rises each year. Pick one of the presets (0%, 5%, 10% or 15%) or type your own value in the field next to them. The card starts at 5%.
CN Code 2028 expansion
The CN Code 2028 expansion switch decides whether the additional CN codes from the Commission's December 2025 proposal for 2028 are included in the projection. It is set to No by default, because the scope extension is a proposal and not adopted law. The info icon next to it explains this. Set it to Yes to see the effect on your exposure, and treat the result as a sensitivity rather than a plan.
Reading the forecast
- Compare the Custom curve with Central to see how far your own assumptions deviate from a middle-of-the-road path.
- The gap between the curves widens towards 2034 because free allocation falls to zero while prices are assumed to rise.
- The scenario prices are independent of the CBAM Price selector in the filter bar. Choosing a Custom Price for the CBAM Costs card does not move the forecast curves; use the Custom scenario start price instead.
Tips
- Use the forecast at budget time to give finance a range, Conservative to Aggressive, rather than a single number.
- Run the forecast in Actual & Default mode once your key suppliers have provided data to see how supplier engagement lowers the whole curve.
- Switch Annual import volume growth to Growth %/yr if your import volumes are trending up, so the projection is not built on a flat assumption.
- Check the baseline line above the chart before you read the numbers, so you know which period the projection starts from.
Common Questions
What's new
- Plan your CBAM budget to 2034: the CBAM Cost Forecast projects your cost exposure across Conservative, Central, Aggressive and your own Custom scenario, with adjustable price and volume growth assumptions and an optional CN Code 2028 scope switch. It is on for CBAM clients by default.
- The forecast baseline now builds on the free allocation your suppliers have reported and follows the Dashboard's Emission Data filter, so the projection lines up with the CBAM Costs and CBAM Readiness figures on the same page.